If you only have one number to make this call with, use AADT — Average Daily Traffic. It's the lever the FHWA uses in its pavement-marking management research and the one ODOT works from on Oregon state-route specs. Below is how we turn those AADT bands into a practical paint-vs-thermoplastic decision, plus the climate, budget, and substrate variables that shift things at the edges.
Direct answer: Use traffic paint for AADT below 2,000 vehicles per day, thermoplastic for AADT above 10,000, and either material for AADT between 2,000 and 10,000 depending on climate and budget. Thermoplastic costs 3 to 5 times more per linear foot at install but lasts 4 to 6 times longer at equivalent traffic count, per FHWA pavement marking research.
What Is AADT and Why Does It Drive the Decision?
AADT (Average Daily Traffic) is the total annual vehicle volume on a given roadway segment divided by 365. The Federal Highway Administration publishes AADT for state highway segments. ODOT publishes Oregon AADT counts. For private parking lots, an estimate based on stall count and average daily turnover gets you close enough.
AADT matters because every vehicle pass over a marking applies abrasion. Traffic paint, at 6-mil dry film, abrades through inside 1 to 3 years on most commercial AADT counts. Thermoplastic, at 90 to 125 mil, holds 5 to 12 years on the same surface because there is roughly 15 to 20 times more material above the substrate to wear through.
What Does the AADT Decision Tree Look Like?
Under 2,000 AADT (low traffic):
- Traffic paint is the cost-efficient choice
- Repaint cycle is 18 to 36 months
- Thermoplastic is overspec for this traffic load and the cost premium does not pay back inside any reasonable horizon
2,000 to 10,000 AADT (moderate traffic):
- Either material works
- Thermoplastic pays back over a 5-year horizon if the property holds the lot for that long
- Traffic paint is acceptable when the property is short-hold or budget-constrained
- Climate exposure (Pacific NW wet, Central OR UV, Eastern OR freeze-thaw) shifts the decision toward thermoplastic at the upper end of this band
Over 10,000 AADT (high traffic):
- Thermoplastic is the right call
- Traffic paint repaints every 9 to 18 months at this AADT, and the cumulative repaint cost exceeds thermoplastic's install premium inside 3 years
- ODOT and most municipalities specify thermoplastic for any roadway in this AADT band that connects to the National Highway System
For the broader product-level matrix (cost, climate, traffic count side-by-side), our traffic paint vs thermoplastic decision matrix lays it out.
How Does Lifespan Scale with AADT?
The lifespan-AADT relationship is roughly logarithmic. Cojo's field-derived service life table:
| AADT | Traffic paint life | Thermoplastic 90-mil sprayed | Thermoplastic 125-mil extruded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1,000 | 24 to 36 months | 7 to 12 years | 9 to 15 years |
| 1,000 to 5,000 | 18 to 24 months | 5 to 8 years | 7 to 10 years |
| 5,000 to 15,000 | 12 to 18 months | 4 to 6 years | 6 to 8 years |
| 15,000 to 30,000 | 9 to 15 months | 3 to 5 years | 5 to 7 years |
| Over 30,000 | 6 to 12 months | 2 to 4 years | 4 to 6 years |
What Does the Cost Crossover Look Like?
Industry Baseline Range
| AADT | 5-year traffic paint TCO | 5-year thermoplastic TCO |
|---|---|---|
| 1,000 | $0.45 to $0.75 per LF (single repaint cycle) | $1.80 to $3.50 per LF (single install) |
| 5,000 | $0.90 to $1.50 per LF (3 repaint cycles) | $1.80 to $3.50 per LF (single install) |
| 15,000 | $1.80 to $3.00 per LF (5 repaint cycles) | $2.40 to $4.20 per LF (single install plus minor touchup) |
| Over 30,000 | $2.70 to $4.50+ per LF (7 repaint cycles) | $3.00 to $5.25 per LF (single install plus mid-life refresh) |
The crossover where thermoplastic 5-year TCO matches paint 5-year TCO sits roughly at 8,000 to 12,000 AADT for I-5 corridor Oregon work. Above that AADT, thermoplastic costs less over 5 years; below it, paint costs less.
Current Market Reality
The 5-year TCO crossover has moved slightly toward lower AADT in 2026 because traffic paint repaint cycles got more expensive (labor, traffic-control plans, ODOT prevailing wage adjustments) while thermoplastic install pricing held steadier. For property owners modeling a new install in 2026, the practical crossover is closer to 7,500 AADT than the 10,000 figure that held in 2022 and 2023.
If you're in the Salem market, our Salem thermoplastic install page has local pricing context.
What Climate Factors Shift the Decision?
Three Oregon climate factors push the AADT crossover toward lower thresholds:
Pacific Northwest wet season: Standing water and freeze-thaw stress paint adhesion faster than dry-climate equivalents. In Eugene and Portland, the practical crossover sits closer to 6,000 AADT.
Central Oregon UV exposure: High-altitude UV in Bend bleaches yellow-pigment paint faster than at lower elevation. Yellow-pigment AADT crossover sits closer to 5,000 in Bend than the 10,000 valley figure.
Eastern Oregon freeze-thaw cycles: Pendleton, La Grande, and Ontario see 80-plus freeze-thaw cycles a year, which lifts paint at the line edges. Crossover sits closer to 4,500 AADT.
Recent Cojo Decision Examples
In April 2026 we ran two jobs the same week that show the AADT call in practice:
- A 1,200-AADT residential clubhouse lot in Salem went with traffic paint. We laid down about 4,000 LF of waterborne acrylic at a 6-mil dry film. Restripe expected in 24 to 30 months.
- A 14,000-AADT Salem retail center went with 125-mil extruded thermoplastic. About 3,400 LF with AASHTO M247 Type I bead drop. Restripe expected in 5 to 8 years.
Both decisions matched the AADT tree above and matched our 5-year TCO model.
If you want the older service-side framing of the same trade-off, our thermoplastic vs paint striping guide covers it from the labor-and-application angle.
Frequently Asked Questions
What if my parking lot AADT is hard to estimate? Use stall count multiplied by average daily turnover. A 200-stall lot with 3 daily turnovers per stall is roughly 600 vehicles per day. Most commercial lots fall in the 1,500 to 8,000 AADT band when calculated this way.
Does the AADT decision change for ISA-stall thermoplastic specifically? Yes. ADA-stall markings are a higher-stakes liability case, and Cojo recommends thermoplastic for ISA symbols and access aisles regardless of AADT to minimize repaint frequency and contrast loss.
Is there an AADT threshold where ODOT requires thermoplastic on state routes? ODOT specifies thermoplastic on most state-route segments connecting to the National Highway System, regardless of strict AADT threshold, because retroreflectivity (under 23 CFR 655.603) holds longer on thermoplastic.
Does the same AADT decision apply to crosswalks? Crosswalks face higher per-vehicle wear at the bars than at line markings between bars, because vehicles cross over the bars perpendicular to traffic. Crosswalks at any AADT above 1,000 typically get thermoplastic for that reason.
How do I model the 5-year TCO for my specific lot? Multiply linear footage by traffic-paint per-LF install, multiply by the number of repaint cycles inside 5 years, then add the cost. Compare against linear footage times thermoplastic per-LF install. Cojo can produce a custom 5-year TCO sheet on a site walk.